Highlights

• • Cecchinato is a slight clay favourite by experience and history
• • Current odds leave both sides with negative or negligible EV

Pros

• + Cecchinato: clay experience and marginal market edge as the favourite
• + Feldbausch: young/up-and-coming with upside on slower courts

Cons

• - Cecchinato: recent match in Biella could cause minor fatigue (reduces but does not flip edge)
• - Feldbausch: not enough evidence to justify >48–50% true probability required for value at 1.95

Details

We compare both players on clay and recent form and find the market prices leave no clear value. Kilian Feldbausch (36-29) is a young, improving player but offers limited clay-specialist resume relative to Marco Cecchinato (30-26), who is the more experienced clay player and is slightly favoured in the market. The market-implied probabilities are very close to our estimated true win probability for Cecchinato (~55%); at the quoted 1.80 moneyline the EV is marginally negative. Feldbausch at 1.95 would need a substantially higher true probability than we assign to turn profitable. With both sides showing negative expected value at current widely-available prices we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Clay surface favors the more experienced clay specialist (Cecchinato) over a younger opponent
• • Market-implied probability for Cecchinato (1/1.80 ≈ 55.6%) is essentially in line with our estimate (~55%) leaving no edge
• • Recent scheduling: Cecchinato played in Biella very recently which could slightly affect fitness, but not enough to justify value on the underdog at 1.95