Highlights

• • Market-implied away chance ~34.6% vs our 43% estimate
• • Grass surface and similar records reduce home favoritism

Pros

• + Significant discrepancy between market price and our probability estimate
• + Both players' clay-oriented profiles make outcome less one-sided on grass

Cons

• - Limited/no specific grass form data for either player in the provided research
• - Some data provided is sparse/ambiguous which increases model uncertainty

Details

The market heavily favors Feldbausch at 1.422 (implied ~70.3%); we view that as overstated given the research. Career records are similar (Feldbausch 36-29; Weis 37-25) and both appear to have been playing mainly on clay — the match is on grass, a surface neither player has clear advantage on in the provided data. We therefore narrow the gap versus the market and estimate Weis's true chance at ~43% (Feldbausch ~57%). At the available away price of 2.89 this implies material value: EV = 0.43 * 2.89 - 1 = +0.243 (24.3% ROI). The market's implied away probability (1/2.89 = 34.6%) is well below our 43% estimate, so we recommend backing the away player at current prices. Key uncertainties are lack of grass form and limited match-level detail, so we remain cautious but see clear value versus the posted odds.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Feldbausch (1.422) despite similar career records
• • Both players' recent activity and records are primarily on clay — match on grass introduces uncertainty
• • Current away price (2.89) implies a much lower probability than our estimate, producing positive EV