Highlights

• • Market implies Tirante ~74.5% to win; our estimate ~72%
• • Feldbausch would need ~3.389+ odds to be profitable by our estimate, current 3.33 is slightly short

Pros

• + Tirante: more experience and better clay resume; recent Genoa results supportive
• + Feldbausch: higher payout if an upset occurs (market underestimates upset potential marginally)

Cons

• - Neither side offers positive expected value at the listed prices
• - Data available is limited to profiles and recent Genoa listings; no detailed match-level stats or H2H provided

Details

We compared the market prices to our estimated win probabilities based only on the provided profiles and recent Genoa Challenger context. Tirante is the stronger and more experienced clay player (234-175 career record, frequent clay results and recent wins in Genoa), so we estimate his true win probability at ~72%. The market price for Tirante (1.341) implies ~74.5%, which is slightly shorter than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. Feldbausch is younger with far fewer pro matches (73-59) and less consistent top-level clay exposure; our approximate true probability for him is ~28%, which would require larger odds than the market's 3.33 to be +EV. Given these estimates neither side shows positive EV at the current widely-available prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Tirante has substantially more tour experience and clay history (234-175) than Feldbausch
• • Both players had matches at the same Genoa clay event just before this match, but Tirante's profile and results suggest slightly higher consistency on clay
• • Market heavily favours Tirante (implied ~74.5%); our estimate (~72%) finds the price too short for value