Highlights

• • Market overprices the home player at 1.429 (≈70% implied)
• • Away at 2.66 is above our required 2.50 threshold for a 40% win probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.66)
• + Estimate is conservative given nearly identical player profiles, reducing overconfidence risk

Cons

• - Very limited and similar data for both players increases outcome variance
• - No H2H, venue-specific advantage, or injury info to strongly support the pick

Details

We assess value on Daria Zelinskaya (away) because market-implied odds overstate Kira Pavlova's win probability. The market prices Pavlova at 1.429 (implied ~70.0%) and Zelinskaya at 2.66 (implied ~37.6%). Both players present almost identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form across clay and hard; there is no clear dominance by the home player to justify a true 70% probability. Conservatively, we estimate Zelinskaya's true win probability at 40.0%. At decimal odds 2.66 this yields EV = 0.40 * 2.66 - 1 = +0.064 (6.4% ROI). The breakeven probability for the 2.66 price is ~37.6%; our 40.0% estimate is above this threshold, creating positive expected value. Key risks include very limited distinguishing data between the players and small-sample variability on the ITF level, so we remain conservative in our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21), reducing a clear quality gap
• • Market implies ~70% for the home player; we view that as overstated given available data
• • Current away odds (2.66) have a breakeven probability (~37.6%) below our conservative 40% true-win estimate