Highlights

• • Book implied probability (75.0%) exceeds our estimate (70.0%)
• • Experience edge favors Kivattsev, but not enough to justify the 1.333 price

Pros

• + Kivattsev's greater match experience and slightly better career win rate
• + Both players' clay experience reduces surface-unknown risk

Cons

• - Meduri's small sample size creates some unpredictability (upset risk)
• - Recent form data is limited and noisy, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.333 -> implied 75.0%) to our assessment. Kivattsev is the stronger, more experienced player (216-209 career) versus Meduri's limited sample (5-12), and both have clay experience. Based on experience, career volume, and modest recent form, we estimate Kivattsev's true win probability at ~70.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.429. The bookmaker's price of 1.333 (implied 75.0%) is shorter than our fair price, producing a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the home moneyline at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Kivattsev (216-209 vs 5-12)
• • Both players have clay experience — surface not a strong equalizer
• • Small sample size and inconsistent results for Meduri increase uncertainty