Highlights

• • Huge discrepancy: market implies 10% for away vs our ~48% estimate
• • Minimum fair odds to break even on the away are ~2.083; current 10.0 is well above that

Pros

• + Very large positive expected value at current published odds (EV ≈ +3.80 per unit)
• + Both players' form and surface history support a near-even matchup, not a 1.04/10 split

Cons

• - Extremely lopsided market could reflect hidden information (withdrawal/injury) or pricing error
• - Small sample sizes and limited data increase model uncertainty despite the apparent misprice

Details

The public market prices here are highly skewed (home 1.04 / away 10.0) while the available form data shows both players with nearly identical records, identical surface exposure and no reported injury or decisive edge. We estimate the true win probability is roughly 52% for the home player (Klara Veldman) and 48% for the away player (Summer Yardley) based on head-to-head absence, similar season records (10-21 vs 10-22) and matching recent results on hard courts. At those probabilities the away price of 10.0 is massively mispriced: implied market probability for Summer is only 10%, versus our estimated ~48%. This yields very large positive expected value on the away moneyline. We note this market distortion could be caused by an input error, late withdrawal risk or bookmaker adjustment; if any of those are true the price can quickly move. Given current published odds and the available match information, Summer Yardley at 10.0 represents a clear value wager.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical season records and recent results for both players
• • Both have played the same surfaces (hard/clay) — no surface advantage apparent
• • Market shows extreme skew (1.04 vs 10.0) inconsistent with on-file form
• • No reported injuries or withdrawals in the provided research, but such events could explain mispricing