Koki Matsuda vs Michael Zhu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite price for Matsuda (1.154) is overpriced relative to our 78% win estimate, producing negative EV, so we recommend no bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Implied probability at 1.154 is ~86.6% vs our model 78%
- • Break-even odds for value on Matsuda are ~1.282 (market is shorter)
Pros
- + Matsuda shows stronger career record and recent form on hard courts
- + Large market gap makes clear decision: current price does not offer value
Cons
- - Potential for variance in ITF matches and limited direct H2H data increases upset risk
- - If odds drift longer (>=1.282) value may appear; current price is too short
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (home 1.154 -> 86.6% implied) to our estimated true probability for Koki Matsuda. Matsuda's career and recent results on hard show a clear edge over Michael Zhu (Matsuda 23-14 vs Zhu 17-27, both have played on hard), but the market price converts to an implied win rate (~86.6%) that we judge overstated. We estimate Matsuda's true win probability at 78% based on relative records, recent form (Matsuda better and more consistent), and surface familiarity. At p=0.78 the break-even decimal odds are 1.282, well above the current 1.154, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.78*1.154 - 1 = -0.100 per unit). Because the current price offers negative EV versus our model, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (86.6%) is significantly higher than our estimate (78%)
- • Koki Matsuda has a better win-loss record and more consistent recent form on hard
- • Michael Zhu has poorer overall record and recent losses on hard, increasing upset risk but not enough to justify 6.18 for Zhu