Koki Matsuda vs S D Prajwal Dev
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small but positive value on Koki Matsuda at 1.341 based on better form and hard-court suitability; the edge is modest (≈4.6% ROI) and carries medium variance.
Highlights
- • Home favorite 1.341 implies ~74.6% chance
- • We estimate Matsuda ~78% chance, producing +4.6% EV
Pros
- + Stronger recent record and hard-court experience
- + Current price shows a small market mispricing vs our probability
Cons
- - Modest edge — small EV may be swallowed by variance in ITF events
- - Limited H2H and some sample-size noise in recent results
Details
We evaluate value on Koki Matsuda at 1.341. Matsuda has a notably stronger recent record (23-14) and plays predominantly on hard courts, which matches the Bali ITF conditions; Prajwal Dev is 18-25 overall with several recent losses on clay and limited hard-court upside. The market-implied probability for Matsuda at 1.341 is ~74.6%, and we estimate his true win probability at 78% given surface fit, superior recent form, and career win-rate differential. At our estimate this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.341 - 1 = +0.046, or +4.6% ROI) — a small but real edge versus the current price. We do note limited direct H2H data and small-sample noise in ITF events, so the edge is modest and should be treated as medium risk.
Key factors
- • Matsuda superior recent win-loss record (23-14) and proven results on hard courts
- • Prajwal Dev has losing overall record (18-25) and recent losses, including on clay
- • Market-implied probability (74.6%) is slightly below our true estimate (78%) creating positive EV
- • No notable reported injuries but limited H2H data and ITF volatility increase variance