Highlights

• • Market strongly favors Matsuda (1.296) but implied 77% seems excessive
• • At our 33% estimate, Klintcharov's odds of 3.39 yield positive EV

Pros

• + Clear pricing discrepancy between implied market probability and career/form indicators
• + Klintcharov has recent hard-court activity in Bali events, reducing surface adjustment risk

Cons

• - Small-sample career windows and noisy recent-match stats increase uncertainty
• - Home favorite has stronger aggregate win-rate, so upset risk is real

Details

We identify value on Alexander Klintcharov at the quoted 3.39. The market prices Koki Matsuda at 1.296 (implied ~77%), which is substantially higher than Matsuda's career win-rate and form signals (career ~62% win rate on record provided). Both players have recent results on hard courts and mixed form, and Klintcharov has play history on Bali hard events. Given the mismatch between the bookmaker-implied probability and our estimate of the true chances (we estimate Klintcharov ~33%), the away price 3.39 offers positive expected value. We account for limited H2H data and small-sample noise, so we use a conservative but realistic true probability to avoid overstatement of value.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Matsuda (~77%) appears overstated vs his career win rate (~62%)
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches; Klintcharov has played in Bali events and can be comfortable on this surface
• • Limited H2H and small sample sizes increase uncertainty, so we adopt a conservative true probability estimate