Highlights

• • Koki Matsuda career win rate around 62% on record provided
• • Market implies ~94% chance for Matsuda (1.06) — large discrepancy with evidence

Pros

• + Matsuda has a positive career record and experience on hard courts
• + Minimal direct risk of upset noted in supplied data for Matsuda

Cons

• - Market price leaves no edge — heavy favorite at 1.06 gives negative EV versus our estimate
• - Insufficient information on the opponent to detect potential value on the underdog

Details

We estimate Koki Matsuda's baseline win probability from his career record (23-14 → ~62%) and known hard-court experience. The market price (home 1.06 → implied ~94.3%) implies a far higher win probability than available evidence supports. Even allowing a modest upward adjustment for surface familiarity and recent play, our best-estimate win probability (~62%) is well below the market-implied probability, so there is no value on the favorite at current prices. There is insufficient information on the opponent to justify a meaningful underdog-probability uplift. Therefore we do not recommend betting either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rate 23-14 → ~62% overall (primary data)
• • Match surface: hard — consistent with Matsuda's recorded matches
• • Market heavily overprices the favorite (1.06 implies ~94% win chance) while research does not support that level