Highlights

• • Current odds for Ogura (3.51) imply 28.5% — we estimate ~31%
• • Positive EV per unit stake (~+0.088) at available price

Pros

• + Price offers clear mathematical edge versus our probability estimate
• + Ogura has recorded recent match activity which may reduce rust risk

Cons

• - Overall career record favors Kawahashi and sample sizes are limited
• - Uncertainty around form and no head-to-head data increases variance

Details

The market prices Yuta Kawahashi as a heavy favorite at 1.265 (implied ~79.1%) while Kosuke Ogura is trading at 3.51 (implied ~28.5%). Kawahashi's career record (19-17, ~52.8%) is superior to Ogura's (21-30, ~41.2%), but Ogura shows more recent recorded activity into August 2025 while Kawahashi's last recorded matches are from June 2025. Both players have experience on hard courts per their profiles, so surface does not strongly favour one over the other. Given Ogura's historical win rate, recent activity, and the bookmaker margin, we estimate Ogura's true win probability around 31.0%, which is above the market-implied 28.5% probability. At the available decimal price of 3.51 that disparity produces positive expected value (EV = 0.31 * 3.51 - 1 ≈ +0.088). We therefore recommend backing the home player (Ogura) because the price offers value versus our estimated true probability while Kawahashi's price is too short to offer value under our projection.

Key factors

• • Ogura career win rate (~41%) vs Kawahashi (~53%) but Ogura has more recent recorded activity (Aug vs Jun)
• • Both players have experience on hard courts—surface does not clearly favor either
• • Market implies Ogura win probability of ~28.5%; our estimate is ~31%, creating value at 3.51