Kosuke Ogura vs Kaichi Uchida
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a small value bet on Kaichi Uchida at 1.725—our estimated 60% win probability produces a modest positive EV of ~3.5% at the current price.
Highlights
- • Uchida slightly favored by form and higher-level recent matches
- • Current price (1.725) is just above our break-even threshold (1.667) for our probability estimate
Pros
- + Edge based on higher-level recent competition for Uchida
- + Both players are comfortable on hard courts, reducing surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Edge is small and close to market-implied probability; sensitive to estimation error
- - Bookmaker overround is sizable (~8.5%), which reduces margin for error
Details
We view Kaichi Uchida as the value side. Uchida has a marginally stronger overall record (27-30 vs 21-30) and recent match activity at a higher event level (Challenger qualifying) compared with Ogura's recent results at M15 level; both players are comfortable on hard courts, but Uchida's exposure to tougher competition and slightly better recent form lead us to assign him a higher true win probability than the market. The market odds (Uchida 1.725 implied ~57.97%) leave little margin, but our conservative estimate of Uchida's true win probability at 60.0% exceeds the break-even threshold (1/0.60 = 1.667), producing a small positive expected value at the quoted 1.725 price. We note the bookmaker overround (~8.5%) and the narrow edge, so this is a modest, information-based value play rather than a large discrepancy bet.
Key factors
- • Uchida has a slightly better career match record (27-30) than Ogura (21-30)
- • Uchida recently competed at Challenger qualifying level, indicating exposure to stronger opponents
- • Both players have hard-court experience; no injuries or surface disadvantages reported