Kosuke Ogura vs Yuta Kawahashi
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small but actionable value on Kosuke Ogura at 3.51: our 31% win probability implies ~8.8% ROI vs the current price.
Highlights
- • Current odds for Ogura (3.51) imply 28.5% — we estimate ~31%
- • Positive EV per unit stake (~+0.088) at available price
Pros
- + Price offers clear mathematical edge versus our probability estimate
- + Ogura has recorded recent match activity which may reduce rust risk
Cons
- - Overall career record favors Kawahashi and sample sizes are limited
- - Uncertainty around form and no head-to-head data increases variance
Details
The market prices Yuta Kawahashi as a heavy favorite at 1.265 (implied ~79.1%) while Kosuke Ogura is trading at 3.51 (implied ~28.5%). Kawahashi's career record (19-17, ~52.8%) is superior to Ogura's (21-30, ~41.2%), but Ogura shows more recent recorded activity into August 2025 while Kawahashi's last recorded matches are from June 2025. Both players have experience on hard courts per their profiles, so surface does not strongly favour one over the other. Given Ogura's historical win rate, recent activity, and the bookmaker margin, we estimate Ogura's true win probability around 31.0%, which is above the market-implied 28.5% probability. At the available decimal price of 3.51 that disparity produces positive expected value (EV = 0.31 * 3.51 - 1 ≈ +0.088). We therefore recommend backing the home player (Ogura) because the price offers value versus our estimated true probability while Kawahashi's price is too short to offer value under our projection.
Key factors
- • Ogura career win rate (~41%) vs Kawahashi (~53%) but Ogura has more recent recorded activity (Aug vs Jun)
- • Both players have experience on hard courts—surface does not clearly favor either
- • Market implies Ogura win probability of ~28.5%; our estimate is ~31%, creating value at 3.51