Kris van Wyk vs Karim Mabrouk
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find no value on Kris van Wyk at 1.13; our estimated win probability (~75%) implies a fair price near 1.333, so the current market is overpriced on the favorite.
Highlights
- • Market price implies ~88.5% win chance for Van Wyk
- • Our conservative estimate (~75%) yields negative EV at current odds
Pros
- + Van Wyk is the clear market favorite and likely the stronger or more experienced player
- + Has hard-court experience reflected in his match history
Cons
- - Recent form shows losses and no clear run of wins in the provided sample
- - Lack of opponent data increases model uncertainty and prevents confident value selection
Details
We estimate Kris van Wyk is the clear favorite but the market price (1.13 -> implied ~88.5%) overstates his true win chance given available information. Van Wyk's career record is 31-31 with mixed recent form on hard courts and several recent losses; there is no opponent data to justify such a huge market edge. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 75%, the required fair price would be ~1.333, meaning the offered 1.13 offers negative expected value. Given limited research and uncertainty about Karim Mabrouk, we do not recommend backing either player at current prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.13) is ~88.5%, likely too high given available form data
- • Kris van Wyk has a 31-31 career record and mixed recent results on hard courts
- • No information on Karim Mabrouk in the provided research increases uncertainty and prevents identifying value on the upset