Kris van Wyk vs Viktor Frydrych

Highlights

• • Away implied probability 29.9% vs our estimate 35%
• • EV at current odds ≈ +0.169 (17.0% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Price is generous relative to Frydrych's historical win rate and local recent results
• + Kris van Wyk's form is not sufficiently dominant to justify the short favorite odds

Cons

• - Small sample size for Frydrych increases outcome variance
• - Limited direct head-to-head and up-to-date match-level stats create forecasting uncertainty

Details

We view Viktor Frydrych as undervalued at 3.34 given the available match data. Frydrych's career win rate (6-11, ~35%) and recent matches at Hurghada (including a win in the event) suggest a true win probability materially above the bookmaker-implied 29.9% for the away price. Kris van Wyk has a larger sample (31-31) but recent results are mixed and do not convincingly justify the 77.5% implied probability the 1.29 price requires. Comparing the implied probabilities to our estimate (35%), the away price of 3.34 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.35*3.34 - 1 = +0.169). We therefore recommend the underdog Viktor Frydrych at current widely-available odds.

Key factors

• • Frydrych's career win-rate (~35%) exceeds the away implied probability (≈29.9%)
• • Frydrych has recent match activity in Hurghada, including a win at the venue
• • Van Wyk's recent form is mixed and does not support the very short 1.29 price