Highlights

• • Market implies 87.5% for Kris; our estimate is ~80%
• • Required minimum fair odds to back Kris profitably: 1.250

Pros

• + Kris has much greater match experience and more hard-court exposure
• + Home/favorite status consistent with available profiles

Cons

• - Kris's recent results include losses and his overall record is only average
• - Current price of 1.143 offers negative expected value vs our probability estimate

Details

We see a very short market price for Kris Van Wyk (1.143, implied win probability ~87.5%). Based on the supplied profiles, Kris has far more match experience (62 matches, 31-31) and more hard-court exposure than Edison (9 matches, 3-6), so we view Kris as the stronger player. However, Kris's overall record is middling and recent results cited include losses, while Edison has a small sample with mixed results. Given the information available, we estimate Kris's true win probability at about 80.0%—reflecting clear favoritism but not near the 87.5% implied by the current odds. At that estimated probability the expected ROI on taking Kris at 1.143 is negative (EV = 0.80 * 1.143 - 1 = -0.086), so there is no positive-value bet at the quoted prices. We therefore do not recommend betting either side unless the market offers Kris at decimal odds >= 1.250 or Edison at a price implying <20% fair chance.

Key factors

• • Kris has substantially more match experience and a larger sample on hard courts
• • Edison has a very small overall sample (9 matches) and losing record (3-6)
• • Market price (1.143) implies ~87.5% which we view as overstated versus available form data