Kristijan Juhas vs Dusan Obradovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value edge on the home player Kristijan Juhas at 1.714 based on marginally superior recent form and clay experience; the expected edge is modest and comes with uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Home implied 58.3% vs our estimate 60.0%
- • Positive but small EV (~0.028 per unit)
Pros
- + Clearer recent win-rate advantage for Juhas
- + Price (1.714) exceeds our minimum required odds (1.667) for a positive EV
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to small changes in probability estimates
- - No head-to-head or injury details to reduce uncertainty
Details
We estimate Kristijan Juhas is slightly undervalued by the market. Juhas has a stronger recent win rate (17-10, ~63%) compared with Dusan Obradovic (26-24, ~52%) and both players have most experience on clay, which neutralizes surface advantage. The book market prices Juhas at 1.714 (implied 58.3%); we estimate his true win probability around 60.0% based on comparative form, match volume, and clay familiarity. At that probability the 1.714 price yields a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.028 per unit). Uncertainty is notable due to limited head-to-head and injury information, so the edge is modest and not guaranteed.
Key factors
- • Juhas has higher recent win percentage (17-10 ~63%) vs Obradovic (26-24 ~52%)
- • Both players predominantly play clay, so surface is a neutral factor
- • Market-implied probability for Juhas (58.3%) is slightly below our estimate (60%)
- • Limited H2H and injury information increases uncertainty in the edge