Kristijan Juhas vs Federico Valle
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Small positive edge on Kristijan Juhas at 1.04 driven by superior clay form and experience, but the margin is tiny and sensitive to estimation error.
Highlights
- • Juhas substantially better match record on clay (17-10 vs 3-7)
- • Current decimal 1.04 implies ~96.2%; our estimate is ~97.0%, producing a small positive EV
Pros
- + Clear form and experience advantage for Juhas on clay
- + Available odds still offer a small positive expected return at our probability
Cons
- - Edge is very small (under 1%), making it vulnerable to estimation error
- - Heavy favorite means low payout and risk of variance from rare upsets
Details
We view Kristijan Juhas as a clear favorite on clay based on a superior record (17-10 vs 3-7) and substantially more recent match volume on the surface. The market price (home 1.04 => implied 96.15%) already strongly favors Juhas, but our assessment puts his win probability slightly higher (97.0%) because of form, match experience, and surface familiarity. At that probability the offered 1.04 still contains a small positive edge (EV ≈ +0.88%). Federico Valle's record and recent losses on clay make a serious upset less likely, which supports backing the favorite rather than the longshot. We note the bookmaker has already compressed the price close to certainty, so the edge is small and sensitive to estimation error.
Key factors
- • Home player (Juhas) has stronger overall match record on clay and far more match volume
- • Away player (Valle) has poor recent form (multiple losses on clay) and limited career matches
- • Market already heavily favors the home player, leaving a very small margin of value