Highlights

• • Home implied probability (2.19) = 45.7%; our estimate = 47.2% → small value
• • Away favorite (1.617) looks overpriced given comparable form and data

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (EV ~ +3.4%)
• + Juhas' slightly better season win-rate and clay familiarity support a higher true probability than the market

Cons

• - Edge is small and based on limited match-level data — outcome variance is high in ITF events
• - No head-to-head data and imperfect/partial statistics increase model uncertainty

Details

We estimate Kristijan Juhas has slight value at the current home price. Both players are clay specialists with similar recent form, but Juhas' marginally higher win-rate (17-10 vs 22-14) on the season and comparable recent match-level service stats suggest he is closer to a coin-flip than the market implies. The market-implied probability for Juhas at 2.19 is 45.66%; our assessed true probability is 47.2%, which produces a small positive edge (EV = 0.472 * 2.19 - 1 = +0.0337). Conversely the away price (1.617) implies ~61.8% for Milic, which looks too high versus the available form data and experience differential. Given the narrow information set and the small edge, we recommend backing the home under a value-focused strategy only because expected value is positive at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Juhas has a marginally higher season win-rate (17-10 = 62.9%) than Milic (22-14 = 61.1%)
• • Both players have recent clay results and similar service performance metrics in listed matches, reducing a strong surface edge
• • Market favors Milic heavily (1.617) — implied away probability (~61.8%) appears higher than justified by form and experience