Kristina Dmitruk vs Alina Korneeva

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Korneeva (~78.9%) appears excessive given identical profiles
• • Dmitruk's implied required price (≥2.857) is below the current 3.51, creating value

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current decimal odds
• + Both players have similar documented experience on clay, reducing a surface-based edge

Cons

• - Research is sparse and shows nearly identical records; the selection is based on perceived market overpricing rather than strong upside evidence
• - No H2H data or recent-match details to confirm Dmitruk's likely match-level performance

Details

We find value backing Kristina Dmitruk at the current price. The market heavily favors Alina Korneeva (decimal 1.265, implied ~78.9%), but the research shows both players have nearly identical career summaries and recent form (each listed as 10-21 with clay and hard experience). There is no clear evidence in the provided data that Korneeva deserves near-80% win probability. Given the parity in the available profiles and lack of injury/H2H information, a materially higher true probability for Korneeva is not supported. We therefore estimate Dmitruk's true win probability at 35%, which implies fair odds of 2.857. With current home odds at 3.51, the bet has positive expected value (EV = 0.35 * 3.51 - 1 = +0.2285, or ~22.9% ROI). Key uncertainties are small sample size and incomplete match-level/contextual info, so this is a speculative value play rather than a low-risk certainty.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical career records (10-21) and both have played clay and hard
• • Market implies an outsized probability for Korneeva not supported by the supplied profiles
• • No injury, H2H, or dominant-form information available to justify heavy favoritism