Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Novak has ~18% chance; our read is ~45%
• • Positive expected value at current odds: EV ≈ +1.475 per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Strong value due to extreme market mispricing relative to supplied data
• + Both players' records and surfaces in the research suggest parity, supporting an underdog upside

Cons

• - Research is limited and identical profiles could mask critical external factors the market is pricing
• - If the market price reflects true but-unreported information (injury, withdrawal risk, seeding), the bet could be poor

Details

We note the market prices Soboleva as an overwhelming favorite (implied ~86%) while Novak is offered at 5.5 (implied ~18%). The supplied player profiles show nearly identical career records (10-21), similar surface exposure (clay and hard), and no injury or H2H data that would justify an 86% win probability for Soboleva. Given the parity in the available data, we view the bookmaker price as a clear mispricing and assign Novak a much higher true win chance than the market implies. At our conservative estimate of a 45% win probability for Novak, the home decimal price of 5.5 offers strong value (EV = 0.45*5.5 - 1 = +1.475). We remain cautious because the dataset is limited and the market may incorporate unavailable information, but based solely on the provided research Novak represents value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Both have played the same surfaces (clay, hard) in the profiles supplied
• • No injuries, withdrawals, or clear form advantage are present in the research
• • Market implied probabilities (home 18%, away 86%) are inconsistent with the available player data