Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 91.6% vs our estimate 94% → edge
• • Minimum fair odds for Sobolieva at our estimate: 1.064 (current price 1.091)

Pros

• + Clear quantitative edge vs market-implied probability
• + Low variance outcome when backing a heavy favorite

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈2.6% ROI) — sensitive to error in probability estimate
• - Research lacks direct data on Sobolieva's current form or injury status

Details

The market prices Anastasiya Sobolieva at 1.091 (implied win probability ~91.6%). Kristina Novak's publicly available profile shows a 10-21 career record, poor recent form and multiple straight losses in lower-level events, which strongly suggests Novak is a clear underdog here. Given Novak's limited win-rate (≈32%) across 31 matches and recent string of losses, we assess Sobolieva's true-win probability materially higher than the market-implied 91.6%. We estimate Sobolieva's true probability at 94%, which compares favorably to the implied 91.6% and produces a positive expected value. Using the current decimal odds of 1.091, EV = 0.94 * 1.091 - 1 ≈ 0.0255 (≈2.55% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds for this probability is 1.064, so any price ≥1.064 offers positive value by our model. Caveats: information on Sobolieva's form/injuries is not provided in the research, so our model relies mainly on Novak's demonstrable weakness and the heavily one-sided market.

Key factors

• • Novak's career record 10-21 and poor recent form indicate low upset probability
• • Market prices Sobolieva at 1.091 (implied ~91.6%), below our estimated 94% true win chance
• • Limited available data on Sobolieva means edge derives primarily from Novak's weakness and market skew