Highlights

• • Gautier favored at 1.48 but our estimated probability (62%) implies negative EV at that price
• • Tamm's 2.5 market price still falls short of the ~2.63 required to be +EV by our estimate

Pros

• + Weighs surface exposure and recent form rather than raw market lean
• + Clear numeric EV calculations show no positive edge

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and sparse context about exact surface/venue may leave residual uncertainty
• - Both players have losing records this season, increasing variance

Details

We find no value at the posted prices. Market odds imply Alexis Gautier (1.48) is a ~67.6% chance (1/1.48) while Kristjan Tamm (2.5) is a 40.0% chance. After adjusting for form and surface exposure we estimate Gautier's true win probability at ~62% and Tamm's at ~38% — Gautier has the better overall record and more matches on hard, while Tamm's profile shows some clay experience that narrows the gap but not enough to overcome the market price. At our estimates the EVs are: Gautier EV = 0.62*1.48 - 1 = -0.082 (about -8.2% ROI) and Tamm EV = 0.38*2.5 - 1 = -0.05 (about -5.0% ROI). Both are negative, so we decline to recommend a side. For reference, to make Gautier +EV you would need decimal odds >= 1.613 and to make Tamm +EV you would need >= 2.632.

Key factors

• • Recent win-loss records favor Gautier overall but both have losing records this season
• • Surface exposure: Gautier largely on hard, Tamm has clay experience which reduces the gap if match is on clay
• • Market pricing (1.48 vs 2.5) overvalues Gautier relative to our estimated probability