Highlights

• • Tomajkova career win rate from provided data ≈32% (10/31)
• • Current favorite price (1.18) implies ~79% win probability after adjusting for vig

Pros

• + Clear, conservative model based on provided career/sample stats
• + Avoids betting into a severe mismatch between market price and documented form

Cons

• - Research lacks any information on Ana Vilcek (opponent), increasing uncertainty
• - If Vilcek is injured or similarly compromised (not reported), our assessment could be overly pessimistic

Details

We compared the quoted moneyline (home 1.18 / away 4.5) to Tomajkova's documented performance. Tomajkova's career record in the provided research is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) with recent losses noted; there is no information on Ana Vilcek to suggest a significantly weaker opponent. The market-implied probability for the home price (normalized for book vig) is roughly 79%, which is far higher than Tomajkova's demonstrated win rate and our assessment of her true chance. Using Tomajkova's documented form and win rate as the primary input, we estimate her true win probability around 33%, which makes the current home price (1.18) a poor value. Because expected value at the posted prices is strongly negative for the favorite and we lack supporting data on the opponent to justify a contrarian view, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Documented career record 10-21 (~32% win rate) suggests much lower win probability than market implies
• • Recent match list shows consecutive losses and weak recent form
• • Market prices imply ~79% for the favorite after normalizing vig, creating a large discrepancy vs. observed form