Highlights

• • Market overprices the home player relative to research parity
• • Away price 2.69 offers meaningful edge if true win chance is ~47%

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.69)
• + Decision based on parity in records/form rather than subjective bias

Cons

• - Limited detailed data (no H2H, seeding, or injury notes) increases uncertainty
• - Tennis matches can be high-variance; single-match outcomes are noisy

Details

We find value on Darja Suvirdjonkova (away). The market prices Krystyna Pochtovyk as a heavy favorite (home 1.402 => implied ~71.4%), which is hard to reconcile with the available profiles: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21), identical recent form snippets, and the same surface history. That parity suggests the match is much closer to a coin flip than the market implies. We estimate Suvirdjonkova's true win probability at 47%, which makes the current away price of 2.69 attractive (break-even probability for 2.69 is ~37.17%). Using p=0.47, EV = 0.47*2.69 - 1 = +0.2643 (26.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The discrepancy likely stems from a pricing bias toward the listed home player rather than any clear performance edge in the research. Given no injury or surface advantage noted and no H2H to favor the home side, the away price represents positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent form in the provided research
• • Market-implied probability heavily favors the home player (~71%), which appears overstated given parity
• • Break-even probability for current away price (2.69) is ~37.2%; our estimate (47%) exceeds that threshold