Krystyna Pochtovyk vs Sara Mikaca
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Krystyna Pochtovyk at 2.30 because the market overestimates Sara Mikaca given nearly identical profiles; backing home yields an estimated +15% ROI based on a 50% true win probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies away ~64% but available data suggests parity (~50/50).
- • Home at 2.30 crosses our break-even threshold (min required odds 2.00) and offers +0.15 EV.
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.30).
- + Decision backed by objective parity in records and lack of differentiating factors.
Cons
- - Limited dataset and lack of H2H or recent-match detail increases uncertainty.
- - If there are unreported injuries or surface-specific strengths favoring the away player, value would evaporate.
Details
We find value on Krystyna Pochtovyk (home) because the market prices Sara Mikaca at 1.56 (implied ~64% chance) despite both players showing effectively identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on the same surfaces. There are no injury flags or H2H data provided that justify such a wide gap. Treating the two players as roughly even given the available information leads us to an estimated true probability for Pochtovyk of 50%. At the quoted home decimal price of 2.30 this implies positive expectation: EV = 0.50 * 2.30 - 1 = +0.15 (15% ROI). By contrast the away price (1.56) is overpriced versus our estimated probability. We therefore recommend taking the home moneyline only because current prices provide value versus our fairness estimate, while acknowledging limited data and higher variance.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records and recent form in the provided data
- • No injuries, H2H or surface-specific edge reported that would justify the market's strong lean to the away player
- • Market-implied probability for away (1.56 -> ~64%) appears richer than justified, creating value on home at 2.30