Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Bocchi ~88%, implying fair odds ~1.136.
• • Current price 1.03 creates a negative EV (~-9.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake).

Pros

• + Bocchi's record shows competence on clay (19-11).
• + Market consensus reflects Bocchi as heavy favorite, reducing exposure if he is indeed dominant.

Cons

• - Quoted favourite odds (1.03) leave no value — expected return is negative.
• - No substantive data on Plewa provided to justify a longshot value bet at 11.5.

Details

The market strongly favors Lorenzo Bocchi at 1.03 (implied 97.1%). Our independent assessment, relying only on the provided profile data, values Bocchi highly on clay given a 19-11 career record and clay experience, but recent listed results show some losses and no direct information on opponent Krzysztof Plewa. We estimate Bocchi's true win probability around 88.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of ~1.136. At the current quoted 1.03 the bet has negative expected value (EV = 0.88*1.03 - 1 ≈ -0.094). There is insufficient information on Plewa to justify taking the longshot at 11.5 as a value play within the constraints of the provided research. Therefore we do not recommend a side: the favourite is overpriced by the book (no value) and the longshot lacks supporting data to claim positive expectation.

Key factors

• • Bocchi has a 19-11 career record with clay experience
• • Current market price (1.03) implies ~97.1% — far shorter than our estimated 88% true probability
• • No usable information provided on Krzysztof Plewa to justify backing the longshot