Highlights

• • Market implies ~98% win chance for Furuya (1.02) — unrealistic given available form data
• • Positive EV would require odds ≳ 3.030 based on our estimated 33% win probability

Pros

• + We are conservative in estimating true probability using concrete career and recent-form figures
• + Clear numerical EV comparison shows why the favourite price is unplayable

Cons

• - Opponent (Ksenia Meshcheryakova) data is not provided, which limits precision of the probability estimate
• - If the market has information not in the research (injury to Meshcheryakova, for example), our estimate could be off

Details

We compared the market price (Michiru Furuya away moneyline 1.02, implied win probability ~98.0%) to a realistic assessment based on the available player data. The research shows Furuya has a 10-21 career record (10 wins in 31 matches, win rate ≈32%) and recent losses on hard courts in early September 2025, so her true win probability against an unspecified opponent is far below the market-implied 98%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 33%, the current price of 1.02 produces a strongly negative expected value (EV = 0.33*1.02 - 1 ≈ -0.663). To achieve positive EV against our estimate, decimal odds would need to be ≥ 3.030. Given the massive gap between market odds and our probability estimate, there is no value in backing either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Furuya career win rate 10-21 (≈32% across 31 matches)
• • Recent results show losses on hard courts in early September 2025
• • Market-implied probability (1.02 → ~98%) is far higher than any realistic estimate