Ksenia Zaytseva vs Doroteja Petrovic

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~94.3% (1.06); our estimate: 55%
• • Break-even odds for value: 1.818; current odds are far shorter

Pros

• + Zaytseva is presented as the clear market favorite, implying opponent weakness or other context the market sees
• + If opponent information later indicates a clear downgrade, there could be value at slightly higher prices

Cons

• - Current price (1.06) offers a strongly negative EV relative to our estimate
• - Available data shows poor recent form and low career win rate, which conflicts with the market certainty

Details

We compare the market price to what we estimate as a realistic win probability based on the available profile for Ksenia Zaytseva. The current moneyline of 1.06 implies a market probability of ~94.3%, but the supplied career data shows a 10-21 record (≈32% career win rate) and recent results trending poorly (multiple losses in recent events). Given that form profile and the complete absence of information on the opponent in the provided research, we estimate Zaytseva's true win probability at 55%. At that probability the break-even decimal odds are 1/0.55 = 1.818; the current price of 1.06 gives a negative expected value (EV = 0.55 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.417). The market is pricing Zaytseva as virtually certain, which is not supported by the available performance data, so there is no value to back the favorite at 1.06. Because of limited opponent information and Zaytseva's poor recent form, we recommend taking no side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Career win-loss 10-21 (≈32%) indicates limited historical winning consistency
• • Recent form shows multiple recent losses, reducing confidence in a near-certain market price
• • No information provided on the opponent or matchup specifics, increasing uncertainty