Kuan-Yi Lee vs Egor Agafonov

Highlights

• • Market implies 53.7% for each; we estimate Egor at 58%
• • Positive expected value: EV ≈ 0.08 at current odds 1.862

Pros

• + Clearer edge from a higher career win rate and larger match sample
• + Direct recent activity on Maanshan/hard in the research supports familiarity with venue/surface

Cons

• - ITF matches are high-variance and profiles in the research include truncated/mixed recent form data
• - Both players have similar market pricing and odds could tighten or move, reducing value

Details

We see value on Egor Agafonov. The market gives both players equal decimals (1.862 -> implied 53.7% each), but the player profiles show Egor with a stronger overall record (38-22, ~63% career win rate in provided span) versus Kuan-Yi Lee (23-19, ~55% career win rate). Egor also has recent Maanshan hard-court activity in the research and a deeper seasonal sample (60 matches vs 42), which reduces variance and supports a higher true win probability. We conservatively estimate Egor's true probability at 58.0% (0.58). At the market decimal odds 1.862 (implied 53.7%), our edge is 0.58 - 0.537 = 0.043 (4.3 percentage points). Using EV = p * odds - 1, the expected ROI on a 1-unit stake is about 0.08 (8.0%), so this is a positive value bet at the quoted price. We remain cautious because ITF matches can be volatile, recent match logs in the research are truncated and show some mixed recent form for both players, and the market may move.

Key factors

• • Egor's larger sample and stronger overall win rate in provided profile (38-22 vs 23-19)
• • Surface alignment: match appears on hard and both players have hard-court experience, with Egor showing recent Maanshan hard-court activity
• • Market-implied probability (53.7%) is below our conservative true estimate (58%), creating visible edge