Kuan-Yi Lee vs Xiaofei Wang
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favourite (Lee) is overpriced by the market relative to our ~60% win estimate, producing a negative EV; we pass.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Lee (1.515) ≈ 66%, our estimate ≈ 60%
- • EV on Lee at current odds ≈ -0.091 per unit staked
Pros
- + Lee’s greater match experience and hard-court exposure provide a modest qualitative edge
- + Wang’s limited match volume increases variance and uncertainty
Cons
- - Neither player shows clear recent form advantage; both have recent losses
- - Market price on Lee is too short relative to our probability estimate, offering no value
Details
We compared the market price (Kuan-Yi Lee 1.515 implied ≈66.0%) to our assessment of the true chance. Both players are hard-court players and Lee has more match volume (42 matches, 23-19) versus Wang (18 matches, 11-7), which gives Lee a small experience edge. Recent form for both shows some short-term losses and there is no H2H data to tilt the call. Given the limited edges in Lee's favor and mixed recent form, we estimate Lee's true win probability at ~60.0%, well below the market-implied 66.0%, so the favorite price (1.515) is overvalued by the book. At that price the bet has negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.091 per unit). The underdog (Wang at 2.41) would require a true win probability above ~41.5% to be +EV; we estimate her true chance below that threshold after adjusting for Lee's experience and comparable surface records. Therefore no side offers positive value at the displayed prices.
Key factors
- • Both players primarily play hard courts; surface is neutral
- • Lee has greater match volume/experience (42 matches) vs Wang (18 matches)
- • Recent form for both shows losses; no clear momentum edge
- • Market implies 66% for Lee; our assessment is ~60%, creating negative EV on the favourite