Highlights

• • Market-implied favorite probability: ~88.7%
• • Our conservative true probability: 88.0% → slight negative EV at 1.128

Pros

• + Favorite is close to fair value, so downside if betting is limited
• + Small markets mean prices are tight; avoiding bets preserves bankroll when edge is negative

Cons

• - If unseen factors (injury, withdrawal, extreme form swing) exist, our conservative estimate could be off
• - The underdog price offers a large payout if one assigns it a higher true probability, but we lack justification

Details

The market makes Kylie Collins an overwhelming favorite at 1.128 (implied ~88.7%). With no external data available, we take a conservative estimate that Collins' true win probability is about 88.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.136; the available 1.128 is slightly worse than fair and yields a small negative edge. Conversely, the underdog price (7.24) only becomes attractive if we assign Mandelikova a win probability materially above 13.8%, which we do not have justification for given the lack of information. Given the tiny negative EV on the favorite and lack of evidence to support a larger probability for the underdog, there is no value at current prices.

Key factors

• • Heavy market favoritism for Kylie Collins (1.128) with implied probability ~88.7%
• • Conservative true-win estimate for Collins at 88.0% produces a required fair price ~1.136
• • No independent data (form, injuries, H2H) available to justify moving probability toward the underdog