Highlights

• • Market implies Sijia ~69% winner, which conflicts with available player data
• • Kyoka's 2.70 decimal price is above our fair threshold of 2.00

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (2.70)
• + Simple thesis: similar player profiles, market overprices the favorite

Cons

• - Research is sparse and recent form for both players is poor
• - No head-to-head, ranking, or injury details to reduce uncertainty

Details

We find value on Kyoka Okamura (home) because the market heavily favors Sijia Wei at 1.45 (implied ~69% win probability) despite the available profiles showing near-identical records and recent form for both players (each 10-21 over 31 matches). With no clear surface, injury, or H2H advantage in the research, we treat the players as essentially even and estimate Kyoka's true win probability at 50%. At current decimal odds of 2.70 this implies a positive expected value: 0.5 * 2.70 - 1 = +0.35 (35% ROI). The minimum fair odds to justify a bet at our probability are 2.000; the market price of 2.70 offers a meaningful margin. Caveats: the data set is limited and recent form for both players is weak, so model uncertainty is elevated.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data (10-21 over 31 matches)
• • Market price (Sijia 1.45) implies a much larger advantage than the research supports
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head edge presented in the research