Kyoka Okamura vs Jessika Ponchet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Kyoka Okamura at 2.9 because the market overstates Ponchet’s edge; with Okamura’s true win probability around 40%, the price yields ~16% ROI.
Highlights
- • Ponchet priced ~71% implied — seems high given similar records
- • Okamura’s fair price (~2.50) is well below current 2.9, creating value
Pros
- + Significant upside if parity holds — strong ROI at current price
- + Both players' recent results and surfaces played do not justify the large market gap
Cons
- - Both players have poor recent records — match could be noisy and high variance
- - Lack of deeper data (H2H, fitness, draw context) increases model uncertainty
Details
The market makes Jessika Ponchet a strong favorite at decimal 1.4 (implied ~71%), but the available performance data show both players with virtually identical recent records (each 10-21) and comparable recent form (both arriving off Challenger hard-court losses). There is no injury information or H2H shown that justifies such a large gap in price. Given parity in surfaces played and win-loss records, we view the true chance for Kyoka Okamura materially higher than the market-implied 34.5% (1/2.9). Estimating Kyoka's true win probability at 40% implies a required fair price of 2.50; the current 2.9 therefore offers positive expected value. We used the provided current moneyline for Okamura (2.9) to compute EV (EV = 0.40*2.9 - 1 = 0.16).
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical season records (10-21) — suggests parity
- • Recent form: both coming off Challenger hard-court losses, no clear momentum advantage
- • Market-implied probability for favorite (1.4) appears overstated relative to on-paper indicators