Highlights

• • Implied home probability 63.7% vs our estimate 62.0%
• • Negative EV at current home price (~-2.7%)

Pros

• + Home is priced as the clear favorite by the market
• + Odds are widely available and liquid

Cons

• - No available independent form or injury data to justify assigning a higher true probability
• - Current price is shorter than our conservative fair odds, producing negative expected return

Details

We compare the market prices to a conservative internal estimate. The book quotes the home pair at 1.57 (implied win probability 63.7%). With no external data on form, surface or injuries, we apply a conservative adjustment for uncertainty and the bookmaker margin and estimate the home team’s true win probability at 62.0%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.613; the available 1.57 produces a negative edge. EV at the current home price is roughly -2.7% on a 1-unit stake, so we do not identify value and therefore do not recommend a side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home at 1.57 is ~63.7%
• • No independent data on form, surface, or injuries — we use a conservative adjustment
• • Bookmaker margin (~7.6% overround) and uncertainty reduce projected value