L. Boehner/F. Pace vs A. Gentili/G. Rizzetto
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information we estimate the home pair at ~90% true chance, which makes the offered 1.08 too short to be profitable; we recommend no bet at current prices.
Highlights
- • Fair odds based on our estimate: 1.111
- • Offered home odds (1.08) produce a small negative expected return (~-2.8%)
Pros
- + Clear market confidence in the home pairing consistent with a likely heavy favorite
- + If new information emerges showing a higher true probability (>92.6%), value could appear
Cons
- - Current price underestimates uncertainty (odds are too short relative to our conservative estimate)
- - No independent form, surface, or injury data to justify overturning the market price
Details
The market price (home 1.08 => implied ~92.6%) implies an overwhelming favorite. Given no external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, we apply a conservative true probability of 90% for the home pairing. At p=0.90 the fair decimal odds would be 1.111; the offered 1.08 is too short to offer positive value (EV = 0.90*1.08 - 1 = -0.028). The away price (7.50) implies ~13.3% but would require a true probability of >13.3% to be +EV; absent evidence of any mitigating factors or value, we cannot justify that. Because our conservative estimate is below the bookmaker-implied probability for the favorite, there is no value to back at current prices.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker price implies a ~92.6% win probability for the home side
- • No external data on form/surface/injuries — we adopt a conservative 90% true probability
- • Gap between fair odds (1.111) and offered odds (1.08) produces negative EV