Highlights

• • Market favourite (away) implied probability ≈73.5%; our estimate ≈72%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV on the away side: ≥1.389 (market 1.36 today)

Pros

• + Conservative, risk-aware stance given lack of verifiable data
• + Clear threshold (1.389) to watch for value if market drifts

Cons

• - No bet misses potential small edges if unseen information exists
• - High variance of doubles means lines can move quickly; position may change

Details

We conservatively estimate the away pair (C. Maguire/V. Melnic) to be the stronger side but not materially stronger than the market implies. The market price of 1.36 implies a win probability of ~73.5%; our conservative true probability estimate for the away side is 72% given absence of form, surface, injury, and H2H data. At that estimate the expected value is negative (EV = 0.72*1.36 - 1 ≈ -0.021), so there is no value to back the favourite at current prices. To back the underdog (home 2.95) we'd need a much higher true probability than we can justify without additional information. Therefore we recommend no bet — wait for sharper line movement (away drift to ≥1.389) or additional data supporting a larger mispricing before wagering.

Key factors

• • No verifiable data on recent form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (1.36) is ~73.5%; our conservative estimate is slightly lower (~72%)
• • Doubles matches can be higher variance; that increases uncertainty and raises required edge for value