Highlights

• • Market-implied raw probability for home = 68.97%, normalized ~64.2%
• • Our conservative estimated true probability for home = 64.0% -> fair odds ~1.563

Pros

• + Favorite price is short, reflecting perceived strength or home advantage
• + Market offers clear pricing to compare against a conservative baseline

Cons

• - No form, surface, H2H or injury data available to justify an edge
• - Current offered odds (1.45) are too low relative to our conservative probability

Details

With no external data returned, we take a conservative, market-aware approach. Current moneyline implies 1/1.45 = 68.97% raw probability for the home pair and 1/2.60 = 38.46% for the away pair; the book's overround is sizable (~7.4%). Normalizing the market probabilities would reduce the home implied win rate to ~64.2%, but given the absence of form, surface, H2H or injury information, we conservatively estimate the true win probability for the home duo at 64.0%. At that probability the fair odds would be ~1.563; at the offered 1.45 the expected value is negative (EV = 0.64*1.45 - 1 = -0.072). The away side would need a true win probability above 38.46% to be +EV at 2.60; without evidence to support that edge we cannot justify grading the outsider as value. Therefore we decline to recommend a bet: both sides appear correctly or underpriced relative to our conservative probabilities.

Key factors

• • No external data returned — must use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Book odds show a meaningful overround (~7.4%) which inflates implied probabilities
• • Home price (1.45) requires a true win probability > 68.97% to be +EV, which we do not assign