Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for the away pair: 93%.
• • Current odds (1.05) yield negative EV (~-2.35%).

Pros

• + Market consensus strongly favors Coleman/Hrastar, which is plausible in the absence of contradictory info.
• + Our conservative approach reduces the chance of overstating value from incomplete data.

Cons

• - No external research available (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H), increasing uncertainty.
• - Tiny differences between market and our estimate mean outcomes could flip with small information updates.

Details

We have no external data beyond the posted prices, so we apply conservative assumptions. The market heavily favors the away pair (1.05 decimal, implied ~95.2%). We estimate the true win probability for E. Coleman/A. Hrastar at 93% (0.93) to account for the realistic, though small, upset potential in lower-level doubles events. At that probability the fair decimal price would be about 1.075; the current 1.05 is shorter than fair, producing a small negative expectation. Calculations: fair min odds = 1 / 0.93 = 1.075; EV at current odds 1.05 = 0.93 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.0235 (about -2.35% ROI). Given the lack of corroborating info (surface, form, injuries, H2H) and the bookmaker-leaning price, we do not identify positive value on either side at the quoted market prices.

Key factors

• • Market implies extreme favoritism for the away pair (1.05 decimal).
• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H—conservative probability required.
• • Small gap between our conservative true probability and market price results in negative EV.