L. Parenti/L. Taddia vs A. De Bernardis/M. Mesaglio
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home pair at 1.76 (estimated true win probability 59%), producing ~3.8% expected ROI — a modest, medium-risk value bet.
Highlights
- • Market implies 56.8%; we estimate 59%
- • EV ≈ +0.038 (3.8% ROI) at current odds
Pros
- + Current price (1.76) offers a small positive expected value versus our conservative probability
- + No reported injuries or obvious negative factors reducing the edge
Cons
- - Edge is small and based on conservative assumptions due to lack of detailed data
- - Outcome uncertainty is material in doubles fixtures; variance is high
Details
We compare the market-implied probability to our conservative true-probability estimate. The market price of 1.76 implies about a 56.8% chance (1/1.76 = 0.568). With no adverse injury reports and a small home-court/ familiarity edge assumed for L. Parenti/L. Taddia, we estimate a true probability of 59.0%. That estimate is conservative (only a ~2.2 percentage-point edge above the market). Using p = 0.59 and the offered decimal 1.76, the expected-value calculation is EV = 0.59 * 1.76 - 1 = 0.038 (≈3.8% ROI). Because EV > 0 at the currently available price, we recommend backing the home pair. We note uncertainty remains (limited public data), so the edge is modest and should be considered a medium-risk value play rather than a high-confidence trade.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.76 -> 56.8%) vs our conservative estimate (59%)
- • Home-court / small familiarity advantage assumed for L. Parenti/L. Taddia
- • No negative injury/news known; margin of edge is modest so uncertainty remains