Highlights

• • Estimated home win probability: 62% — not sufficient to justify betting at 1.46
• • Both sides produce negative EV under conservative assumptions; recommend no bet

Pros

• + Home team is the clear favorite under conservative assumptions
• + Market prices are stable and widely available (no exploitable outlier)

Cons

• - Current home odds (1.46) are below our minimum required odds (1.613) for positive EV
• - Lack of match-level data (surface, recent form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty

Details

With no external data available we use conservative assumptions. We estimate the home pair L. Soussi/M. Tahiri have a moderate edge but not large enough to overcome the bookmaker price. Our estimated true win probability for the home side is 62% (p = 0.62), which implies break-even decimal odds of 1.613. The current market price of 1.46 for the home side is inferior to the required 1.613, producing a negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1). The away price (2.55) similarly does not offer value when using the implied away probability (1 - p = 0.38). Given both sides show negative EV under conservative assumptions, we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on form, surface preference, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market price for home (1.46) implies a ~68.5% probability; our conservative estimate is ~62%, so market appears slightly overpriced on favorite
• • Small margin between our estimate and the market combined with bookmaker vig removes value