L. Boehner/F. Pace vs C. Gennaro/M. Lombardini
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the market's favorite (1.33) is priced slightly too short versus our conservative 72% win estimate, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (~75.2%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (72%).
- • Away implied probability (~32.3%) is higher than our estimate for the underdog (~28%).
Pros
- + Clear market favorite — lower variance outcome more likely.
- + Odds are widely available and stable for monitoring if new info appears.
Cons
- - No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H to justify overturning market pricing.
- - Our conservative estimate still leaves both sides negative EV at current prices.
Details
We compared the bookmaker decimals to a conservative, data-sparse estimate. The market prices the home pair at 1.33 (implied ~75.2%). With no injury, surface, form or H2H information available, we adopt a cautious estimate that the home pair's true win probability is 72%. At that estimate the home side is over-priced by the market (required probability for break-even at 1.33 is ~75.2%). The away side at 3.10 implies ~32.3% — our implied away probability (1 - 0.72 = 0.28) is lower than that, so it also lacks value. Because neither side yields positive expected value at the quoted books, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Book implied probability for home = 1/1.33 ≈ 75.2%
- • No independent data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H — we apply a conservative estimate
- • Doubles matches carry higher variance; without edges we avoid taking priced favorites