L. Brigido Douek/I. de Mattos Silva vs G. Contrino/B. Stagno
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: At the quoted 1.14 price the away team shows a very small positive edge versus our conservative probability estimate (EV ≈ 0.32%). This is a low-risk, low-return value situation based on limited information.
Highlights
- • Implied probability: 87.7%; our estimate: 88.0%
- • Small positive EV at current odds (≈ +0.32%)
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current market price
- + Low variance outcome likelihood when backing a heavy favorite
Cons
- - Edge is marginal and sensitive to small errors in the probability estimate
- - No supporting data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to increase confidence
Details
The market prices the away team at 1.14 (implied probability 87.7%). With no external research available we adopt a conservative assessment that the heavy favorites retain a high win probability but allow a small edge versus the market due to the likelihood that bookmakers include a margin in short-priced favorites and occasional market softening on low-liquidity doubles lines. We estimate the away pair's true win probability at 88.0%, slightly above the implied 87.7%, which produces a small positive expected value at the quoted 1.14 price. Given the very small edge and absence of confirming data (form, surface, injuries, H2H), this is a low-return, low-risk value play rather than a strong recommendation.
Key factors
- • Away moneyline 1.14 implies 87.7% — we estimate a slightly higher true probability (88%)
- • No external data available (form, injuries, H2H), so estimates are conservative
- • Bookmaker margin and low-liquidity doubles markets can create small persistent edges