L. Cabrera/T. Preston vs L. Khan/N. McKenzie
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: the favorite's price (1.02) implies a higher win probability than our conservative estimate, producing negative EV; the underdog is not priced high enough relative to any plausible upset probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~98.04% for the favorite vs our ~96% estimate
- • EV at current favorite price is negative (~ -0.0208 per unit)
Pros
- + Heavy favorite likely to win in most scenarios
- + Low volatility outcome if one-sided match
Cons
- - No positive expected value at current prices
- - No supporting external data to justify taking the underdog or disagreeing with implied market odds
Details
We conservatively estimate the favorite (L. Cabrera/T. Preston) has around a 96% chance to win given the heavy market skew, absence of contrary injury or form information, and typical dominance dynamics in lower-tier doubles mismatches. The market-implied probability at the quoted home price (1.02) is about 98.04%, which exceeds our estimated true probability and therefore offers negative expected value on the favorite. Conversely, the away price (14.0) implies about a 2.78% chance, but even if we assign the away team the remainder (~4%), that price does not produce positive EV. With no external research available to justify material deviation from conservative priors, neither side presents value at the posted prices.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (1.02) is ~98.04%, above our conservative estimate
- • No external injury, form, or head-to-head data available to justify deviation
- • Large market gap makes underdog price attractive only if true upset chance >> 4%, which is unsupported