L. Draxl/C. Harper vs J. Hasson/O. Shimanov

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (83.3%) exceeds our conservative estimate (78%).
• • Away price (4.35) does not reach the minimum required (~4.545) to be +EV given our estimates.

Pros

• + Market reflects a clear favorite which is plausible
• + If additional positive intel on the favorite appears, value could emerge

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.20) yields negative EV against our estimate
• - Lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data increases model uncertainty

Details

With no external data available we apply conservative assumptions. The market gives L. Draxl/C. Harper a heavy favorite at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%). We estimate a realistic true win probability for the favorite of 78% given the absence of confirming form/injury/H2H data and the inherent variance in doubles. At p=0.78 the fair decimal price is ~1.282; the current market price of 1.20 therefore implies negative expected value for backing the favorite. Conversely, the away price of 4.35 implies a win probability of ~23.0% which is slightly above the away probability implied by our favorite estimate (22%), but not enough to produce positive EV at the available price. The bookmaker margin and lack of match-specific information increase uncertainty, so we do not identify value at current quoted odds.

Key factors

• • No match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — must be conservative
• • Market heavily favors home side (1.20) with implied probability > bookmaker-adjusted estimate
• • Bookmaker margin and doubles volatility increase uncertainty and reduce value