L. Formella/Haoyuan Huang vs L. Allen/J. Hallquist Lithen

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (83.3%) > our estimated true probability (80.0%)
• • Home longshot (4.10) lacks supporting doubles performance data to justify a higher upset probability

Pros

• + Market price reflects heavy favoritism which is plausible given limited data
• + We use conservative assumptions given sparse doubles information

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific stats and partner information, increasing uncertainty
• - Small edges could exist off unobserved info, but current quoted prices do not offer positive EV

Details

We find no profitable value at the quoted prices. The market heavily favors the away side at 1.20 (implied ~83.3%). Research on Haoyuan Huang shows poor recent singles form (2-6 across eight matches on hard courts), but the research contains no doubles-specific performance or reliable data for L. Formella, L. Allen, or J. Hallquist Lithen as a pair. Given the sparse and noisy data, we take a conservative true-win estimate for the away team of 80.0% (0.80). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.25; the offered 1.20 is shorter than fair and produces negative expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.20 - 1 = -0.04). The longshot home price 4.10 (implied 24.4%) would require a true upset probability ≥ 24.39% to be fair; based on Huang’s weak individual form and absent evidence the home pair is stronger in doubles, we do not assign a higher upset probability. Therefore there is no value on either side at current prices and we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Huang's recent singles form is poor (2-6 on hard in provided data)
• • No doubles form or head-to-head data for these pairings in the research
• • Market strongly favors away at 1.20, which is shorter than our conservative fair price (1.25)