Highlights

• • Home implied probability: 68.5% (1.46); our estimate: 63%
• • Required fair decimal for value on home side: 1.587; current price 1.46 offers negative EV

Pros

• + Market clearly identifies the favorite (short price), so any edge would be in detecting an overestimate
• + Clay surface information is known and factored as neutral-to-slightly-favourable depending on players

Cons

• - Research set lacks form, injury, or H2H details — high uncertainty
• - Current favorite price (1.46) is too short relative to our conservative probability to offer positive EV

Details

We compared the market prices to a conservative, evidence-limited estimate of the true win probability. The market odds (Home 1.46 → implied 68.5%) price the home pair as a clear favorite. Given only the surface (outdoor clay) and no reliable form, injury, or H2H data in the research set, we apply a conservative true probability of 63% for the home side — below the market-implied 68.5%. At that true probability the fair decimal price is ~1.587, which is higher than the current 1.46, so there is no positive expected value on the home moneyline at available prices. The away line (2.55 → implied 39.2%) likewise does not show value under reasonable adjustments to our estimate. Because the dataset is sparse we avoid recommending a side and require a larger price gap to justify a play.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 1.46 -> 68.5%) versus our conservative true probability (63%)
• • Surface: outdoor clay (may slightly favor specialists, but no confirming roster/form data)
• • Very limited additional research (no reliable injury/form/H2H data), increasing uncertainty