Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 11.5 is ~8.7%, we estimate ~10%
• • Estimated EV at current price: +0.15 (15% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear mathematical edge at current price if our conservative probability estimate is correct
• + Doubles outcomes are relatively volatile, supporting occasional long-shot value

Cons

• - No available match-specific data (form, surface preference, injuries, H2H) increases model uncertainty
• - Market may have valid inside information or strong signal favoring the heavy favorite that we cannot observe

Details

We observe a market price that heavily favors the away pair at 1.03 (implied ~97.1%). With no external scouting or injury information available, we apply conservative assumptions that account for intrinsic variance in doubles and the potential for underestimation of the underdog by markets. We estimate the true win probability for L. Garcia Vidal/S. Mendonca at 10.0% (0.10), which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 8.7% for the home side (11.5 decimal). At the offered 11.5, that estimated probability yields positive expected value (EV = 0.10 * 11.5 - 1 = +0.15 or +15% ROI). We therefore recommend the home side only because current prices offer clear mathematical value relative to our conservative probability estimate; however, this bet carries elevated model and information risk given the absence of match-specific data.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability extremely high for away (1.03) leaving value on the long price
• • High variance in doubles matches increases upset potential relative to singles
• • No match-specific injury/form/H2H data available — increases uncertainty