L. Hietaranta/S. Sakellaridi vs R. Dencheva/M. Gae
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the favourite is overpriced by the market and the longshot is not sufficiently mispriced to offer positive EV under conservative assumptions.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.03) = 97.1%, which exceeds our conservative estimate (~94%).
- • Away implied probability (12.0) = 8.33%; our conservative upset estimate (6%) produces a negative EV at that price.
Pros
- + Market clearly prices a dominant favourite — matches expectations for a heavy favourite scenario.
- + Conservative probability assignments avoid overestimating longshot chances given lack of data.
Cons
- - No positive expected value at available prices — neither side meets the value threshold.
- - High uncertainty due to absence of independent information on players, surface, or recent form.
Details
Market prices show an extreme favourite (Home 1.03, implied 97.1%) and a long outsider (Away 12.0, implied 8.33%). With no external form, injury, or H2H data available, we make conservative, neutral assumptions: the home pair is overwhelmingly likely to win but not quite as certain as the 1.03 price implies. We estimate the home win probability at ~94% and the away at ~6% (sum to 100% for a two-way outcome). At our estimate the away side at 12.0 (p=0.06) has negative expected value (EV = 0.06*12.0 - 1 = -0.28). The home price of 1.03 implies a higher probability than our 94% estimate (implied 97.1%), and betting the favourite at 1.03 also yields negative EV (EV = 0.94*1.03 - 1 = -0.0318). Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices; we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Extreme market skew to the home side (very short favourite)
- • No independent form/injury/H2H data available — use conservative assumptions
- • Decimal 12.0 implies ~8.33% chance for the away side, lower than our conservative 6% estimate of true upset risk