L. Hignett/J. Story vs M. Rosenkranz/H. Wendelken

Highlights

• • Market price (1.11) equates to ~90.1% implied probability
• • Our conservative estimate (88%) produces a negative EV at the currently available odds

Pros

• + Home is a short-priced favourite, implying low variance if correct
• + Conservative probability accounts for missing data and reduces overconfidence

Cons

• - No research data available on form, surface, injuries or pair chemistry
• - Current price (1.11) does not offer positive expected value versus our estimate

Details

We see a very short-priced home favorite at 1.11 (market-implied win probability ≈ 90.1%). With no external data returned, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability of 88% for the home side to reflect likely favorite advantage in doubles but also model uncertainty from missing form/injury/H2H information. At our estimated probability the fair decimal price is ~1.136, which is higher than the available 1.11, so the market price offers a negative edge. Calculation: EV = 0.88 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.0232 (≈ -2.3% ROI). Because expected value is negative at current quoted odds, we do not recommend backing either side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.11 → ~90.1%) is slightly higher than our conservative true probability estimate (88%)
• • No returned research on form, injuries, surface or head-to-heads increases model uncertainty, so we reduced our probability relative to the market
• • Narrow edge: required fair odds (1.136) are above available price (1.11), producing a small negative expected value